blogenlust
8.07.2004

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004


The talk from the punditocracy after the Democratic Convention was all about bounce. How much of a bounce would Kerry receive in the polls? Why not a higher bounce? lower? Did Al Sharpton have an effect on Kerry's bounce? Boy, Kerry's hair bounces! Inane and irrelevant stuff like that. Talk of a bounce in poll numbers is, ultimately, irrelevant because of the Electoral College. In a perfect world where the President is the person who receives the highest percentage of votes, Al Gore would be President. Therefore, the real indicator of how well a candidate is doing is not necessarily national polls, but rather, an Electoral Count Predictor Electoral-Vote.com tracks the latest state polls in terms of being "strong," "weak," or "barely" for a particular candidate, and then calculates the current total of electoral votes if the election were held today. The last few weeks (or at least since I've been watching since the Convention), Kerry has had a pretty healthy lead on Bush. Currently, its 307-231. That will likely fluctuate a little each day, so you are able to gauge the trends. The good news for Kerry fans is that New Hampshire, West Virginia, and Florida (barring any election frauds) are all in Kerry's column, even though Bush won them in 2000. All in all, I have found the site to be very handy and seemingly non-partisan. Bookmark it!