blogenlust
9.27.2004

Thoughts on the Election


Heraldblog points out that an overwhelming number of American-Muslims support John Kerry (76%) over President Bush (7%). This is big news when you consider:
“This contrasts sharply with the 2000 election, when Mr. Bush garnered 42% of the Muslim vote versus 31% for Democrat Al Gore,” said Dr. Zahid Bukhari, director of Project MAPS.
In other words, a significant portion of the electorate that voted for Bush is not supporting his re-election by an overwhelming amount. Considering how close the last election was, and how close this election appears to be, this is quite significant. It is numbers like these that make me confident that John Kerry will still win on November 2. If Bush wins, he will have to sneak in again. I think Kerry will either win by a small margin or he'll win comfortably. Why? Because a greater percentage of the population does not believe this country is headed in the right direction, and more people disapprove of the President than approve. These reasons, along with the fact that the President has lost the support of the Muslim vote, and has not overwhelmingly secured the Latino vote make me think that Bush is really vulnerable. And if you consider these numbers on the deteriorating situation in Iraq, the evidence is even more convincing. But why aren't these trends showing up in the head to head national/state polls? I'm not sure...I think at this point it is too early to get an accurate indication from the polls, which have proven remarkably inconsistent--a sign I think illustrates how close the race is right now. This is not to say Bush will definitely lose. I'm just pointing out that Kerry, in my opinion, still has the advantage. After the debates, it might be smart to re-examine these numbers and see how they change based on the impressions voters have of the two candidates.