blogenlust
10.29.2004

2004 Electoral College Prediction


I have been confident for some time now that John Kerry will win Tuesday's election and by a margin that is not expected. It's time to put my money where my mouth is. Below you will find my projected electoral college map that gives 320 EVs to Kerry and 218 EVs to Bush. Blogenlust 2004 EC Prediction Bold? Yes. Impossible? No. My reasons for this are many. Among them are the fact that Bush is polling horribly in key states(below 50% in most swing states), the likely large turnout (especially among the 18-28 group), and the fact that a majority of Americans believe we are worse off than we were four years ago and are not heading in the right direction. I don't know what the popular vote will be this time around, but I suspect it won't be as close as 2000. Now, whether or not this is all known Tuesday night is to be determined. It will largely depend on whether or not particular states yield results that are outside the margin of litigation. However, I'm confident that when it is all said in done, my map will look a lot like the map. So, try this for yourself. You can make your own map here and it automatically calculates your total. Leave your total in the comments, and I'll try to think of a cool reward for whomever gets closest. Bring it on.