blogenlust
10.31.2004

The Hidden Youth Vote


It is news like this that makes me think it might not be as close as the punditocracy and pollsters are saying.
Polling firm Zogby International and partner Rock the Vote found Massachusetts Senator John Kerry leading President Bush 55% to 40% among 18-29 year-old likely voters in their first joint Rock the Vote Mobile political poll, conducted exclusively on mobile phones October 27 through 30, 2004.  Independent Ralph Nader received 1.6%, while 4% remain undecided in the survey of 6,039 likely voters.  The poll is centered on subscribers to the Rock the Vote Mobile (RTVMO) platform, a joint initiative of Rock the Vote and Motorola Inc. (for more information: http://www.rtvmo.com).  The poll has margin of error of +/-1.2 percentage points. The poll also found that only 2.3% of 18-29 year-old respondents said they did not plan to vote, and another .5% who were not sure if they would.  The results of the survey are weighted for region, gender, and political party.
The turnout is expected to be extremely high, and I suspect that many of the new voters aren't fully represented in traditional polls. if Zogby's numbers are close to accurate, it is very good news for Kerry.