blogenlust
10.21.2004

The Krugmeister


The indispensable Paul Krugman:
Electoral College projections based on state polls also show a dead heat. Projections assuming that undecided voters will break for the challenger in typical proportions give Mr. Kerry more than 300 electoral votes. But if you get your political news from cable TV, you probably have a very different sense of where things stand. CNN, which co-sponsored that Gallup poll, rarely informs its viewers that other polls tell a very different story. The same is true of Fox News, which has its own very Bush-friendly poll. As a result, there is a widespread public impression that Mr. Bush holds a commanding lead. By the way, why does the Gallup poll, which is influential because of its illustrious history, report a large Bush lead when many other polls show a dead heat? It's mostly because of how Gallup determines "likely voters": the poll shows only a three-point Bush lead among registered voters. And as the Democratic poll expert Ruy Teixeira points out (using data obtained by Steve Soto, a liberal blogger), Gallup's sample of supposedly likely voters contains a much smaller proportion of both minority and young voters than the actual proportions of these voters in the 2000 election.
Here is how bad things are for Bush. He will lose despite shitty cable news' non-coverage of how much he's screwed things up. Now that's bad. Krugman brings up some other important points, and you should definitely read the rest of the article. One of the things that has worried me the most about this election is the fact that the Secretaries of State in at least two major swing states (Ohio and Florida) are Republicans and the Bush campaign chairs for their respective states. Does conflict of interest mean anything anymore? Is anybody home in Florida? The name Katherine Harris ring any bells? Anyone? Bueller? Maybe there are other examples, and I'm sure there are a few with Democrats, but this has just got to stop. You can't be the campaign chair of a particular candidate and then be expected to objectively rule on voting matters in the same state. At least back in the olden days, the fix was more subtle. These days, though, it's as though they don't even think anyone will notice/care/vote.