blogenlust
10.14.2004

state of the race


A friend wrote me today expressing concern over the latest tally at Electoral-Vote.com. Below is my response:
The thing is, if you look at the actual polls from the states on E-V.com, you'll notice that many of the swing states are a week or more old, and do not take into account last night. I still think that there is a huge number of people not being polled including young people and newly registered voters, both of whom are allegedly coming out in large numbers (for whom? I don't know, but my guess is that it will be mostly for Kerry). Bush also pulled his television advertising from Pennsylvania yesterday, which is important because it is the state he has visited the most (39 times). So I don't think we need to worry about that. The job numbers out today, especially concerning GM, mean that Michigan might be a Kerry lock. In Ohio, Nader was kicked off the ballot, which can only be good for Kerry---and Bush's remarks last night regarding how the unemployed should just go back to community college (jesus!) cannot play too well in Ohio, which has one of the highest unemployment percentages in the country. And don't worry about Wisconsin, my people will deliver! Same with Iowa and NJ, EV.com has them tied but I don't think they will be when it matters. I think we'll probably see one or two of the southern border states like Arkansas, Missouri, and Tennesse go/lean Kerry, or at least become a problem for Bush in that he needs to go there and campaign, thus taking away his attention from places like WI and OH. Of course, there are also those post-debate polls that show Kerry has momentum. I could go on and on. One last thing--the fact that Lynne Cheney is making such a whiny mess about Kerry mentioning her daughter is a lesbian further underscores how desperate these guys are. Its such a diversion and it only plays to the base. And if the Republicans have to play to their base they are in big trouble, because it was "compassionate conservatism" and "uniter not a divider" that fooled the moderates into voting for Bush in 2000. In other words, they've conceded the entire moderate part of the political spectrum to Kerry (and the polls show it). Kerry is going to have a huge turnout from Democrats that are rabid to oust Bush. With the addition of the moderates and undecided going for Kerry (mostly), Bush will have to rely on a HUGE turnout by his base just to stay at the level he had in 2000. I don't think he's going to get many more people from his base to get out and vote, and certainly not more than the combined increase of Kerry (formerly Gore) voters with moderates, undecideds, and new voters. Plus, Nader isn't as big a factor this year as he was in 2000. THUS, KERRY WINS. Simple as that.
Was denkst du?